Fundamentals point to a very clear oversupply of coffee, as Covid-19 has hardly affected production but it has weakened demand. With a record Brazil crop in the bag, surely prices should be heading lower? Actually, prices are 10% higher now than a year ago (mid-October). This forces us to look into factors other than fundamentals, like fund positioning and currencies. Visibility on fund strategies is always a little bit of guesswork; and we need to look through smoke and mirrors.